Resounding election victory for Pakistan's Sharif

LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif looked poised Sunday to return to office with a resounding election victory — a mandate that could make it easier to tackle the country's daunting problems, including growing power outages, weak economic growth and shaky government finances.

Questions remain, however, about Sharif's stance on another key issue: violent Islamic extremism. Critics have accused his party of being soft on radicals because it hasn't cracked down on militant groups in its stronghold of Punjab province.

That could be a concern for the United States, which has pushed Pakistan for years to take stronger action against a variety of Islamic militant groups, especially fighters staging cross-border attacks against American troops in Afghanistan.

As unofficial returns rolled in Sunday, a day after the election, state TV estimates put Sharif close to the majority in the national assembly needed to govern outright for the next five years. Even if he falls short of that threshold, independent candidates almost certain to swing in Sharif's favor would give his Pakistan Muslim League-N party a ruling majority.

That would put the 63-year-old Sharif in a much stronger position than the outgoing Pakistan People's Party, which ruled for five years with a weak coalition that was often on the verge of collapse.

Pakistan suffers from a growing energy crisis, with some areas experiencing power outages for up to 18 hours a day. That has seriously hurt the economy, pushing growth below 4 percent a year. The country needs a growth rate of twice that to provide jobs for its expanding population of 180 million.

Ballooning energy subsidies and payments to keep failing public enterprises afloat have steadily eaten away at the government's finances, forcing the country to seek another unpopular bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan also has an ineffective tax system, depriving the government of funds.

Sharif, the son of a wealthy industrialist, is seen by many as more likely to tackle the country's economic problems effectively because much of his party's support comes from businessmen. He is also expected to push for better relations with Pakistan's archenemy and neighbor India, which could help the economy.

The Pakistan People's Party was widely perceived to have done little on the economic front.

"Anything better than zero and you have already improved on the PPP's performance in terms of managing the economy," said Cyril Almeida, a columnist for Pakistan's Dawn newspaper.

The former ruling party was soundly beaten in Saturday's election. Sharif's party was leading in contests for 127 seats, just short of the 137 directly elected seats needed to form a majority, state TV said.

The PPP was ahead in contests for 32 national assembly seats, based on partial vote counts. That is a significant drop from the 91 seats the party won in the 2008 election.

Independent candidates were leading in more than 20 contests, and they historically join the party that forms the government, which would leave the Pakistan Muslim League-N with a majority.

"I'm sure business and the economy will be far better in a couple of years," said Amir Nayaz, one of hundreds of Sharif supporters who gathered outside his home in Punjab's capital, Lahore, beating on drums, dancing and chanting slogans.

It was a remarkable comeback for the two-time prime minister, who was toppled in a 1999 coup by then-army chief Gen. Pervez Musharraf and was sent into exile in Saudi Arabia for years. He returned in 2007, and his party came in second in elections the following year.

Over the last five years, Sharif put steady pressure on the PPP-led government. But because he was wary of army interference, he never applied enough pressure to threaten the government's hold on power. That attitude helped enable parliament to complete its term and transfer power in democratic elections for the first time since the country was founded in 1947.

President Barack Obama praised "the historic peaceful and transparent transfer of civilian power."

In an ironic twist, the man who toppled Sharif in a military coup, Musharraf, is currently under house arrest in the country after returning from self-imposed exile. It will be up to Sharif's government to decide whether to bring treason charges against Musharraf in the Supreme Court.

Sharif's party managed to weather a serious challenge from former cricket star Imran Khan, whose criticism of the country's traditional politicians energized the youth. Even though Khan failed to deliver his promised "political tsunami," his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party did much better than it had historically.

It was leading in contests for 31 national assembly seats, state TV said, and appeared to be in position to possibly form the government in northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The party boycotted elections in 2008 and only won one national assembly seat in 2002.

The Pakistani Taliban, which has been waging a bloody insurgency against the government, tried to derail the election with attacks. More than 150 people were killed with guns and bombs in the run-up to the election, including 29 on election day.

The deadly campaign failed to keep people away from the polls. Turnout was nearly 60 percent, the highest in more than 40 years, the election commission said. But the violence, which mainly targeted secular parties, may have helped candidates seen as taking a softer line toward the militants, like Sharif and Khan, because they were able to campaign more freely.

Sharif has called for negotiations with the Pakistani Taliban but hasn't said clearly whether he thinks army operations against the militants should continue until peace is achieved. His party, which has ruled Punjab for the past five years, has not taken any clear action against the powerful Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group based in that province. Those militants are blamed for the 2008 attack on the Indian city of Mumbai that killed 166 people.

"I don't think that these guys have enough understanding of the risk," said Imtiaz Gul, director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, referring to Sharif's party members. "They think they cannot afford to stoke unnecessary trouble for them by cracking down on people or groups who are extremists or terrorists."

It's also unclear what Sharif's policy will be toward neighboring Afghanistan, where the U.S. plans to withdraw most of its combat troops by 2014 and is seeking help from Pakistan to negotiate peace with the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan and Afghanistan have long had tense relations.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai promised "full cooperation" with Pakistan's new government Sunday, but alluded to the often-hostile relationship between the two countries and suspicions that Islamabad has aided insurgents and contributed to Afghanistan's instability.

"We hope that the new elected government provides the ground for peace and brotherhood with Afghanistan" and cooperates "in rooting out terrorist sanctuaries," he said.

The U.S. and Pakistan have also had a troubled relationship, especially after the 2011 American raid that killed Osama bin Laden in a Pakistani army town.

Sharif is expected to be somewhat more nationalistic and protective of state sovereignty when it comes to relations with the U.S. than the outgoing government. He defied U.S. opposition to Pakistan's nuclear test in 1998 and has criticized unpopular American drone attacks targeting militants in the country. But that doesn't mean the relationship will radically change, especially since the army often plays a dominant role in foreign policy issues.

"At the end of the day, Sharif is a businessman, and he looks at these things through a kind of pragmatic analysis," Almedia said. "I don't see any reason for him to want ties with U.S. to be poor, tense or troublesome."

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Associated Press writers Rebecca Santana, Munir Ahmed and Zarar Khan in Islamabad and Kathy Gannon in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this report.

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Abbot reported from Islamabad.

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Look at major issues facing Pakistan's new leader

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The winner of Pakistan's historic national election, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, faces a host of problems, including faltering economic growth, worsening energy shortages and continued attacks by militants.

FALTERING ECONOMIC GROWTH: The economy has grown at less than 4 percent a year under the most recent government, which was led by the Pakistan People's Party and governed for five years. That is much lower than the rates during the previous administration, which at times hovered near 7 percent. Under the most recent government, inflation spiked, reaching an annualized rate of around 25 percent in some months. However, the inflation rate has fallen and averaged around 11 percent last year.

ENERGY SHORTAGES: Electricity shortages nearly doubled under the PPP compared with the previous administration. Some places in Pakistan suffer blackouts for up to 18 hours a day during summer months. The country also has experienced increased shortages of natural gas, which were felt acutely during the winter because many people rely on natural gas to heat their homes as well as cook. Spending on energy subsidies and failing public enterprises has helped sap the government's funds, which are much lower than they should be because of ineffective tax collection. The combination of these factors means the government will likely have to seek yet another unpopular bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

TALIBAN ATTACKS: The military has launched numerous operations against the Pakistani Taliban in the country's northwest tribal region along the Afghan border during the past five years. Analysts say the operations and U.S. drone attacks against militants in the tribal region have helped produce a significant decline in overall levels of violence in 2011 and 2012. But the Taliban have remained a potent threat, including during the election campaign. The group carried out near-daily attacks against election candidates and offices that killed more than 130 people. The militants mostly targeted liberal secular parties that supported operations against the Taliban. Sectarian violence by radical Sunni Muslim militants against minority Shiites also has significantly worsened in recent months.

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Pakistan's ruling party struggles in election

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The campaign posters for the Pakistan People's Party show both why it has been so popular for so long and why it's in trouble ahead of this Saturday's national election: two of the party icons on the posters are dead and a third is not old enough to be a candidate.

As the historic vote approaches, one of South Asia's most venerable parties has problems.

The party rode to power in 2008 on a wave of sympathy following the assassination of longtime party leader Benazir Bhutto but now it is struggling after five unpopular years in office. Their campaign was made even more difficult after Taliban threats made it dangerous to hold public political functions, so the party's leader and current star, Bhutto's son, hasn't done rallies to fire up the faithful.

The result has been a subdued campaign for the incumbent party.

"It is very quiet," said Asad Sayeed, from the Karachi-based Collective for Social Science Research.

The PPP has taken out extensive ads in newspapers and on Pakistan television touting their accomplishments and more importantly reminding voters of the Bhutto family's extensive sacrifices in politics. Party founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was executed in 1979 after a military coup, and his daughter Benazir died in 2007 from a gun and bomb attack widely blamed on the Taliban.

One television ad starts with a sound bite from the founder of the PPP, then goes to a clip of Benazir Bhutto's last speech before her death and ends with a clip of her son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, shouting energetically to an unseen crowd about the sacrifices he's ready to make for his followers. At 24, he can't run for parliament but he's the most famous living Bhutto in a party that's synonymous with the name.

But ads only go so far for the PPP as much of their traditional vote bank is from the rural poor, who don't own a television and can't read even if they could buy a newspaper. That's why analysts say the rallies have always been particularly important to the party's get-out-the-vote drive.

"In the past it's always been a charismatic leader who has been leading those rallies. And that's not there," said Sayeed.

Even with their diminished popularity, many analysts still expect the Pakistan People's Party to at least come in second during Saturday's vote. The Pakistan Muslim League-N, lead by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, is expected to win. Under the Pakistani system, a strong second-place showing could mean they'd be an active opposition or get a chance to form the coalition if others fail.

The party has had some successes during its time in office. President Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widower, managed to hold together an unwieldy, fractured coalition government for a full five-year term — making it the first elected civilian government in Pakistan's history to finish its term and hand power to another elected civilian government.

The PPP government also pushed through legislation devolving power to the provinces and restricting the power of the presidency.

But in a country reeling from power cuts that last more than half the day, rising inflation and deteriorating security, those political victories don't put food on people's plates or money in their wallets. The party has to defend a record that many have pilloried, and it's running as an incumbent — not as the underdog it likes to portray itself as.

"I think it's going to be very difficult for them to play this (victim) card this time around," said Moeed Yusuf, South Asia adviser at the United States Institute of Peace.

And having Bilawal Bhutto largely sidelined is a blow.

Bilawal — known generally by his first name — was only 19 when his mother died. His father was named by his deceased wife in her will as the leader of the PPP, but the elder Zardari immediately handed that post to his son.

Bilawal was away at college in Britain so in practice his father ran the party for the next five years, but on December 27, the younger Zardari was formally launched into Pakistani politics at a ceremony on the anniversary of his mother's death. The party said he would be taking part in the campaign through rallies or other events such as small gatherings.

But a decision by Bilawal to fly to Dubai in March just as the race was heating up raised eyebrows. The official version of events was that threats to his life forced him to leave the country. That's been a definite possibility. The Taliban is believed responsible for near-daily attacks against political candidates.

But rumors also circulated of a spat with his father. Whatever the reason, Bilawal eventually returned to Pakistan but has played little public role in the campaign.

A PPP candidate in the southern port city of Karachi, Rashid Rabbani, said Bilawal's television advertisements have helped but personal appearances would have been better.

"It would have been a lot better if the party's young chairman ... could have come in the field and addressed election rallies," he said.

Other key party figures such as former prime ministers Raja Pervaiz Ashraf and Yousuf Raza Gilani have not stepped up to lead the party at a national level. Ashraf has focused on the tough race he is running for reelection outside of Islamabad and Gilani has focused on helping his sons' election run.

President Zardari is restricted by his office from actively campaigning in the election. But even if he were able to campaign, Zardari is deeply unpopular in Pakistan, where many voters view him as corrupt.

Party supporters recognize the challenges.

A PPP member of the outgoing parliament, Shahnaz Wazir Ali, said it will take time for Bilawal to gain the experience to match his mother as a politician. The party also does not want to risk losing him in a terror attack like the one that took his mother. As a result, Ali said, they are going into the crucial election without a central figure to rally around.

Ali also recognized that after five difficult years in office, the party will have to run with the weight of incumbency at a time when many Pakistanis simply want something different.

"Most people that I talk to in Pakistan want change, especially the younger generation," she said.

The party, which draws its strength from the poor, rural areas of southern Sindh province, also failed to recognize the shift from the countryside to the cities that has been taking place in Pakistan, or to capitalize on the huge number of young voters expected to go to the polls, she said.

Still, the party maintains a strong reserve of dependable voters in Sindh, where the Bhutto family's ancestral home is located and where both Benazir and her father are buried.

Many people in rural Sindh are worried that a national government dominated by their more populous northern neighbor, Punjab province, would ignore their needs. The popularity of the government's Benazir Income Support Program, which gives cash to poor people, might also draw voters.

There is also a deep emotional tie between some Pakistanis and a party whose leaders have sacrificed their very lives for their followers.

"People's party has retained its standing among a section of the population which comes from lower classes, and some families no matter what their social status, they are emotionally committed to the Bhuttos," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

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Associated Press writer Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.

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Pakistan's Musharraf disqualified from election

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistani judges on Tuesday disqualified Pervez Musharraf from running in the upcoming parliamentary election, a blow to the former military ruler who recently returned from self-imposed exile to make a political comeback, lawyers said.

Over a week ago, a judge in the remote northern district of Chitral gave Musharraf approval to run in the May 11 election, even though he was disqualified in three other districts for suspending the constitution and sacking senior judges while in power.

Pakistan's political system allows a candidate to run for multiple seats simultaneously.

Lawyers challenged the Chitral decision, and on Tuesday a three-member appellate tribunal at the high court in the main northwest city of Peshawar disqualified Musharraf from running in the district, said two of the lawyers who raised objections, Taufiq Asif and Rao Abdur Rahim.

Asif challenged Musharraf's candidacy because of his actions while in power, while Rahim said there were procedural flaws with the former military ruler's nomination.

Musharraf's lawyer, Ahmed Raza Kasuri, said he plans to appeal the ruling in the Supreme Court.

The tribunal's decision is one of the biggest blows in what has been a bumpy return for Musharraf after over four years in self-imposed exile.

Musharraf seized power in a military coup in 1999 and ruled for nearly a decade before he was forced to step down and left the country in 2008 because of growing discontent with his rule. He returned to Pakistan last month to stage a political comeback, but he has been met with low levels of public support, a variety of legal challenges and Taliban death threats.

The former military strongman was only met with a couple thousand people at the airport in the southern city of Karachi when his plane from Dubai landed on March 24, a sign of how little support analysts say he enjoys in the country. A few days later, an angry lawyer threw a shoe at Musharraf as he walked through a court building in Karachi.

Musharraf faces a variety of legal charges, including some related to the 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. He has not been arrested because he arranged pre-arrest bail before he arrived, a feature of Pakistan's legal system.

The Supreme Court is also hearing petitions from lawyers alleging Musharraf committed treason while in office, an offense that can be punished by death or life in prison.

Amid all of this, the Pakistani Taliban have threatened to assassinate Musharraf. The militants released a video the day before Musharraf returned to Pakistan saying they had set up a special death squad to target him.

There is also concern that attacks by the Taliban and other militants could hamper the upcoming election.

A bombing Tuesday in the country's southwest hit a convoy of vehicles carrying a candidate in the parliamentary election, killing four people and wounding six others, said Pakistani officials.

Sardar Sanaullah Zehri's convoy was passing over a bridge in Baluchistan province's Khuzdar district when a bomb was detonated by remote control, said local government official Abdul Sattar Mengal.

Zehri, the Baluchistan president of the Pakistan Muslim League-N party, was unharmed, but his brother, son and nephew were killed, along with a driver, said Megal.

Zehri's vehicle passed over the bridge safely because it had jammers that prevented the bomb from detonating, said another government official, Mohammad Akbar. But several vehicles traveling in the convoy were hit.

No one has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Baluchistan is home to both Islamic militants and nationalists who have been waging an insurgency against the government for decades, seeking greater autonomy and a larger share of the province's natural resources.

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Associated Press writer Abdul Sattar contributed to this report from Quetta, Pakistan.

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UN says US drones violate Pakistan's sovereignty

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The head of a U.N. team investigating casualties from U.S. drone strikes has concluded that the attacks violate Pakistan's sovereignty.

Ben Emmerson, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights and counter-terrorism, says the Pakistani government made clear to him it does not consent to the strikes.

He says Pakistani officials told him they have confirmed at least 400 civilian deaths by U.S. drones.

A Pakistani analyst helping Emmerson's team, Imtiaz Gul, said Friday that he gave the U.N. investigator case studies of 25 strikes that allegedly killed civilians.

Emmerson's statement was released on Thursday, following his three-day visit to Pakistan that ended Wednesday.

U.S. officials have disputed claims that drones have killed many civilians in Pakistan. They have also said Pakistan secretly consents to the strikes.

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