Despite threats, risks temper Korea war tensions

TOKYO (AP) — As tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula, one thing remains certain: All sides have good reason to avoid an all-out war. The last one, six decades ago, killed an estimated 4 million people.

North Korea's leaders know that war would be suicidal. In the long run, they cannot expect to defeat the United States and successfully overrun South Korea. War would be horrific for the other side as well. South Korea could suffer staggering casualties. The U.S. would face a destabilized major ally, possible but unlikely nuclear or chemical weapons attacks on its forward-positioned bases, and dramatically increased tensions with North Korea's neighbor and Korean War ally, China.

Here's a look at the precarious balance of power that has kept the Korean Peninsula so close to conflict since the three-year war ended in 1953, and some of the strategic calculus behind why, despite the shrill rhetoric and seemingly reckless saber-rattling, leaders on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone have carefully avoided going back over the brink.

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THE SEA OF FIRE

Even without nuclear weapons, North Korea has an ace in the hole. Most experts believe its claims to have enough conventional firepower from its artillery units to devastate the greater Seoul area, South Korea's bustling capital of 24 million. Such an attack would cause severe casualties — often estimated in the hundreds of thousands — in a very short period of time.

Many of these artillery batteries are already in place, dug in and very effectively camouflaged, which means that U.S. and South Korean forces cannot count on being able to take them out before they strike. Experts believe about 60 percent of North Korea's military assets are positioned relatively close to the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries.

North Korea's most threatening weapons are its 170 mm Koksan artillery guns, which are 14 meters long and can shoot conventional mortar ammunition 40 kilometers (25 miles). That's not quite enough to reach Seoul, which is 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the DMZ. But if they use rocket-assisted projectiles, the range increases to about 60 kilometers (37 miles). Chemical weapons fired from these guns could cause even greater mayhem.

North Korea experts Victor Cha and David Kang posted on the website of Foreign Policy magazine late last month that the North can fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of a conflict.

Even so, not everyone believes North Korea could make good on its "sea of fire" threats. Security expert Roger Cavazos, a former U.S. Army officer, wrote in a report for the Nautilus Institute last year that, among other things, North Korea's big guns have a high rate of firing duds, pose more of a threat to Seoul's less populated outer suburbs, and would be vulnerable to counterattack as soon as they start firing and reveal their location.

"North Korea occasionally threatens to "turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire," he wrote. "But can North Korea really do this? ... The short answer is they can't; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime."

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FIRST STRIKES, PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKES

This is what both sides say concerns them the most.

North Korea says it is developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles as a deterrent to keep the United States or South Korea from attacking it first. The reasoning is that Washington will not launch a pre-emptive strike if North Korea has a good chance of getting off an immediate — and devastating — response of its own.

Along with its artillery aimed at Seoul and other targets in South Korea, North Korea is developing the capacity to deploy missiles that are mobile, thus easier to move or hide. North Korea already has Rodong missiles that have — on paper at least — a range of about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles), enough to reach several U.S. military bases in Japan. Along with 28,000 troops in South Korea, the U.S. has 50,000 troops based in Japan.

North Korea is not believed to be capable of making a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on a long-range missile capable of hitting the United States. But physicist David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, believes it may be capable of mounting nuclear warheads on Rodongs. In any case, Pyongyang is continuing to pursue advancements, apparently out of the belief that it needs nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S. to have a credible deterrent.

The United States rejects the North's claim that such a deterrent is necessary, saying it does not intend to launch pre-emptive strikes against North Korea. At the same time, Washington has made it clear that it could.

During ongoing Foal Eagle military maneuvers in South Korea, two U.S. B-2 strategic stealth bombers, flying from their base in Missouri, conducted a mock bombing run on a South Korean range. The B-2 is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, precision bombs that could take out specific targets such as North Korean government buildings, and massive conventional bombs designed to penetrate deep into the ground to destroy North Korean tunnels and dug-in military positions. One big problem, however, is determining where the targets are.

Amid heightened tensions over North Korea's nuclear weapons program in 1994, President Bill Clinton reportedly considered a pre-emptive strike, but decided the risks were too high.

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CHINA'S DILEMMA

Without China, North Korea wouldn't exist. The Chinese fought alongside the North Koreans in the Korean War and have propped up Pyongyang with economic aid ever since.

Beijing has grown frustrated with Pyongyang, especially over its nuclear program. China and the U.S. worked together in drafting a U.N. resolution punishing the North for its Feb. 12 nuclear test.

But China still has valid reasons not to want the regime to suddenly collapse.

War in Korea would likely spark a massive exodus of North Korean civilians along its porous 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border, which in turn could lead to a humanitarian crisis or unrest that the Chinese government would have to deal with. The fall of North Korea could pave the way for the United States to establish military bases closer to Chinese territory, or the creation of a unified Korea over which Beijing might have less influence.

China, the world's second-largest economy, also has significant trade with South Korea and the United States. Turmoil on the Korean Peninsula would harm the economies of all three countries.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions. But he warned that the U.S. isn't likely to win China over as a reliable partner against North Korea beyond the current flare-up.

"There are limits to how far China and the U.S. have coincidental interests with regard to North Korea," he said.

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Musharraf returns to Pakistan amid death threats

KARACHI, Pakistan (AP) — Former President Pervez Musharraf returned to Pakistan on Sunday after more than four years in exile, seeking a possible political comeback in defiance of judicial probes and death threats from Taliban militants.

The journey from Dubai to the southern port city of Karachi was intended as the first step in his goal of rebuilding his image after years on the political margins. But the former military strongman was met by no more than a couple thousand people at the airport, who threw rose petals and waved flags emblazoned with his image — a small turnout by the standards of Pakistani politics and a testament to how much his support in the country has fallen since he was pushed from power in 2008.

Musharraf struck a defiant tone when he spoke to his supporters outside a terminal at the airport, saying he had proved those people wrong who said he would never return after he failed to follow through on previous promises. He also said he was not cowed by a threat by the Pakistani Taliban to kill him.

"I'm not scared. I'm only afraid of God," Musharraf told his supporters. "For the sake of my country, wherever I need to go, I will go."

Since the former general stepped down in the face of mounting discontent, Pakistan's civilian leadership has struggled with a sinking economy, resilient Islamic extremist factions and tensions with Washington over drone strikes and the May 2011 raid that killed Osama bin Laden.

Musharraf represents a polarizing force that could further complicate Pakistan's attempt to hold parliamentary elections in May and stage its first transition from one civilian government to another.

He is viewed as an enemy by many Islamic militants and others for his decision to side with America in the response to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. On Saturday, the Pakistani Taliban vowed to mobilize death squads to send Musharraf "to hell" if he returns.

Also Saturday, militants launched a suicide car bomb attack against a military check post in the country's northwest tribal region, killing 17 soldiers, the army said.

Musharraf's supporters, including elements of the military and members of Pakistan's influential expatriate communities, consider him a strong leader whose voice — even just in parliament — could help stabilize the country.

Musharraf also faces legal charges, including some originating from the probe of the 2007 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who also spent time in self-imposed exile in Dubai before returning.

The flight from Dubai came after several failed promises to return in recent years. Musharraf announced in early March that he would lead his party, the All Pakistan Muslim League, in May elections.

Musharraf met briefly with reporters in Dubai before heading to the airport wearing a white shalwar kameez — the traditional loose-fitting outfit in Pakistan — and sandals from the country's Peshawar region near the Afghan border. He mingled with supporters aboard the plane on the way to Karachi, as some of them chanted slogans for his party.

Musharraf tweeted that he was "thrilled to be back home" soon after he landed in Karachi. But there were moments of tension among his supporters when security forces whisked him away in a convoy of about a dozen vehicles, raising concerns he was being detained for the legal charges against him. It turns out he was simply being shifted to a different terminal, and his supporters had to wait over two hours before he came out to address them.

The former president plans to spend a few days at a hotel in Karachi, where he and his team will hash out their plan for the upcoming election, said spokeswoman Saima Ali Dada. He will then travel to Islamabad. Meanwhile, his legal team will meet to decide the best way to respond to the charges against him.

"He is hoping for the best," said Dada.

Musharraf took power in a 1999 coup and was forced out of office in 2008 amid growing discontent over his rule and the threat of impeachment by the country's two most powerful political parties. He has since lived in Dubai and London.

His decision to return was given a boost last week when a Pakistani court granted him pre-emptive bail — essentially preventing his immediate arrest — in three cases in which he's implicated, including Bhutto's death. He now has 10 days to appear in court. He has dismissed the various charges as baseless.

His return comes as Pakistan seeks for the first time to hand power from one elected government to another.

On Sunday, the country's election commission appointed a former high court chief justice nominated by the country's outgoing ruling party to serve as caretaker prime minister in the run-up to the election. The commission chose Mir Hazar Khan Khoso out of four nominees, two submitted by the recently ruling Pakistan People's Party and two by the main opposition Pakistan Muslim League-N.

Khoso served as the chief justice to the high court in southwest Baluchistan province and also briefly served as the acting governor of the province.

The election comes as the country is struggling with rolling blackouts, rising inflation and widespread security problems.

On Saturday, the Pakistan Taliban released a video threatening to unleash suicide bombers and snipers against Musharraf if he comes back. One of the two people speaking in the video was Adnan Rashid, a former Pakistani air force officer convicted in an attack against Musharraf. The Taliban broke Rashid out of prison last year, along with nearly 400 other detainees.

"The mujahedeen of Islam have prepared a death squad to send Pervez Musharraf to hell," said Rashid, who spoke in the video in front of a group of about 20 militants holding rifles. "We warn you to surrender yourself to us. Otherwise we will hit you from where you will never reckon."

Musharraf had been expected to address supporters at a gathering Sunday in Karachi near the mausoleum of Pakistan's founding father Mohammed Ali Jinnah. But police decided to cancel his permit because of a "very serious threat," said Tahir Naveed, the deputy inspector general of Karachi police. He said Musharraf would be provided with an armored vehicle to protect him. Banners and billboards welcoming Musharraf back to Pakistan lined the street from the airport.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, Musharraf came under intense pressure from the U.S. to back the Americans in the coming war in Afghanistan and cut off ties with the Taliban, which he did. For that, militants as well as many other Pakistanis saw him as carrying out the American agenda in Pakistan.

He's also vilified by militants for ordering the 2007 raid against a mosque in downtown Islamabad that had become a sanctuary for militants opposed to Pakistan's support of the war in Afghanistan. At least 102 people were killed in the weeklong operation, most of them supporters of the mosque.

Militants tried to kill Musharraf twice in December 2003 in Rawalpindi, where the Pakistani military is headquartered. First they placed a bomb intended to go off when his convoy passed by. When that didn't work, suicide attackers tried to ram his motorcade with explosives-laden vehicles. The president was unhurt but 16 others died.

In addition to the Bhutto case, Musharraf also faces charges resulting from investigations into the killing of Akbar Bugti, a Baluch nationalist leader who died in August 2006 after a standoff with the Pakistani military. In another case, he's accused of illegally removing a number of judges including the chief justice of the supreme court.

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Santana reported from Karachi, Pakistan. Associated Press writer Rasool Dawar in Peshawar, Pakistan, and Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.

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Security threats, fractures plague US and Afghans

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — A series of security problems and difficult fractures in relations with Afghan leaders plagued Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's first trip here as Pentagon chief, including the Afghan president's accusations that the U.S. and the Taliban are working in concert to show that violence in the country will worsen if most coalition troops leave.

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Joseph Dunford, quickly rejected the charges President Hamid Karzai made Sunday as "categorically false." But the accusations were just the latest in a series of disputes that have frayed relations between the two nations as the U.S. works to wind down the war and turn the country's security over to the Afghans.

Speaking to reporters shortly after Karzai made the comments, Dunford said the Afghan leader has never expressed such views to him but said it was understandable that tensions would arise as the coalition balances the need to complete its mission with the Afghans' move to exercise more sovereignty.

"We have fought too hard over the past 12 years, we have shed too much blood over the past 12 years, we have done too much to help the Afghan security forces grow over the last 12 years to ever think that violence or instability would be to our advantage," said Dunford.

Dunford's comments came, however, soon after U.S. officials cancelled a news conference with Hagel and Karzai because of a security threat — just a day after a suicide bomber on a bicycle struck outside the Afghan Defense Ministry, killing nine Afghan civilians and wounding 14 others. Hagel heard the explosion from the safe location where he was meeting with Afghan officials but was never in danger.

The security problems compounded a series of flare-ups in recent weeks, including a dispute that has stalled the transfer of a U.S. prison to Afghan authority as well as Karzai's order to expel U.S. special operations forces out of Wardak province, which lies just outside the capital, because of allegations that Afghans working with the commandos were involved in abusive behavior.

Hagel and Karzai still planned to meet privately Sunday, and some of the ongoing issues were likely to come up. The U.S. and Afghan leaders are in the midst of negotiations over the long-term presence of American forces in Afghanistan beyond the end of 2014, when all combat troops are scheduled to leave.

U.S. officials would not provide details on the security concerns that led to cancelling the news conference. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly. But Pentagon press secretary George Little said the cancellation was not due to Karzai's earlier comments about the U.S. and the Taliban.

During a nationally televised speech, Karzai said two suicide bombings that killed 19 people on Saturday — the one outside the Afghan Defense Ministry and the other near a police checkpoint in eastern Khost province — show the insurgent group is conducting attacks to help show that international forces will still be needed to keep the peace after their current combat mission ends in 2014.

"The explosions in Kabul and Khost yesterday showed that they are at the service of America and at the service of this phrase: 2014. They are trying to frighten us into thinking that if the foreigners are not in Afghanistan, we would be facing these sorts of incidents," he said during the speech about the state of Afghan women.

Karzai is known for making incendiary comments in his public speeches. And Dunford on Sunday said that some of the recent disputes between the U.S.-led coalition and Afghan leaders "strike at the heart of sovereignty" and could be more political in nature. He said Karzai may be doing what he needs to do to communicate with the Afghan people and their political leaders outside the government.

Dunford also rejected the suggestion that the recent friction reflects an erosion in the U.S. relationship with Afghanistan.

"We do not have a broken relationship, we do not have a lack of trust," said Dunford, adding that none of the political dust-ups have bled over into his dealings with his Afghan security force counterparts. He said efforts to train and advise the Afghan security forces have continued and that plans for them to be in the lead for security across the country later this summer are on track.

Dunford would not detail why the scheduled transfer of the Parwan Detention Center was delayed again and called it a difference in perspective. But he made clear that the U.S. believes it must retain the power to insure that detainees who are deemed to be security threats remain in custody.

Currently, there is an Afghan administrator of the prison, which is located about an hour outside the capital, but the Americans have veto power over the release of detainees. The prisoners held under American authority do not have the right to a trial because the U.S. considers them detainees held as part of an ongoing conflict.

Regarding the move to expel the special operations forces, Dunford said he spoke to Karzai about the issue on Saturday and told him the U.S. is working on a plan to transition security in the Wardak region to Afghan forces. He would not directly say whether the commandos will stay in Wardak when the deadline to leave comes on Monday. But he said Karzai knows they are working on the plan and has not yet issued a directive to the force.

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Associated Press writers Heidi Vogt and Rahim Faiez contributed to this report.

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Follow Lolita C. Baldor on Twitter: http://twitter.com/lbaldor

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Threats of violence in Kenyan slums color election

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Dozens of shack homes have been burned to the ground in recent weeks in Mathare, Nairobi's most dangerous slum. Families are moving into zones controlled by their own clans, fearful of attacks between the tribes of Kenya's top two presidential candidates.

Kenya on Monday holds its first presidential election since the 2007 vote devolved into months of tribal violence that killed more than 1,000 people and displaced 600,000 from their homes. In a hopeful sign, this year's presidential candidates pledged at a weekend prayer rally to accept the outcome of the election and ensure violence doesn't again break out.

But the government-funded Kenya National Commission on Human Rights on Wednesday released a long list of physical attacks, hate speech and cases of ethnic intimidation Kenya has seen in recent weeks, exposing an undercurrent of tribal tension.

Those strains are on high display in Mathare, where at least seven people have died and 100 shacks burned in the last two months. Officially Mathare suffered 112 deaths during the 2007-08 election violence, though one policeman, who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press, says Mathare really suffered over 370 killings.

Lewis Kamau is a Kikuyu but wears the bright orange hat of the Luo candidate, Raila Odinga. Kamau is not crossing party lines; he says the hat protects him from Luo attacks. He says he expects Luos to react negatively if Odinga loses.

"Violence will erupt because of results they don't like," he said. "I know these people. They won't accept the results."

Kamau — who backs the Kikuyu candidate, Uhuru Kenyatta — is standing 20 feet from a dirt lot scorched by fire, one of the shacks burned in Luo-on-Kikuyu attacks that began in late December and carried over into January.

"Just the other day they burned here and we didn't retaliate," he said, motioning to the charred lot. "We kept quiet. On Monday after the (election results) announcement, we will be ready for it."

Odinga or Kenyatta must win at least 50 percent of the vote in Monday's election, or the two will go to a second-round runoff, where attention will be even more focused on the two, heightening tensions further.

Many in Mathare, and across town in Nairobi's biggest slum, Kibera, say that Kenyans have learned from the 2007-08 violence, and won't repeat it. But many of those pronouncements come from people who assume their candidate will win.

"I think given the 2007 experience we will accept the results, even if, God forbid, we Luos lose. But I don't see us losing," said Daniel Omondo, an information technology specialist in Mathare.

The Kikuyu-Luo rift goes back decades, to when Odinga's father was asked by British colonialist to be Kenya's prime minister. The elder Odinga declined, saying that Jomo Kenyatta — Uhuru's father — was the rightful leader. Kenyatta eventually became president, with Odinga as his vice president. But a few years later Kenyatta forced Odinga out of the government, and the tribes' relations began a long slide downward.

In a small tin shack in Kibera where illegal, home-made whisky is served, one Odinga backer who gave his name as Christian Nyambega said the country needs its political leaders to accept the results and for the voters to remain calm. Then one of his drinking colleagues became agitated at the memory of the disputed 2007 election win of current President Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu.

"They're going to steal the vote the way they did for Kibaki. The Kikuyus are not the only tribe in Kenya. We have 42 tribes in Kenya," said the man, who gave his name only as Patrick, saying her feared government retribution.

Of the dozens of worrying cases of political tensions described by the human rights commission on Wednesday was one in which Kikuyu landlords in a low-income area of Nairobi ejected Luo tenants from their rental houses. It also said a member of Kenyatta's party has been linked to the use of gangs to threaten opponents. The report also documented cases of residents voluntarily moving to areas controlled by their own tribe.

One Western embassy official watching election developments closely said he expects less violence this election season than in 2007. But he said if 200 people die in violence, it might have to be considered progress compared with the more than 1,000 deaths in 2007-08.

There are other areas of concern in addition to the Luo-Kikuyu rift in Nairobi. A United Nations official who is watching election developments said that Kenya's Rift Valley has seen an influx of imported guns that didn't exist five years ago, and the Tana River area — a region that has seen serious tribal fighting over the last year — is likely to see more deaths.

The official said that violence in Mathare will be the worst in Nairobi, and that members of Amnesty International and Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission have been receiving serious threats. The official said he could not be identified because he was not authorized to share election data.

Since Kenya's last election, the country now has a new constitution, a new judicial system that is lauded as less corrupted, and the police force is being overhauled. Many residents hold out hope that those changes will help ensure that government systems — instead of massive street violence — will be used to settle election disputes.

"The violence (in 2007-08) came because of the stealing of votes. The Odinga supporters thought it was rigged, so there was an outcry. This time we have a credible judicial commission and we have seen many changes in police," said Bernard Titus, a Kibera resident.

In addition, four prominent Kenyans — including Kenyatta and his vice presidential candidate — face charges at the International Criminal Court over allegations that they orchestrated the 2007 election violence. Some Kenyans believe those charges have reduced the chances that power brokers will hire thugs — mostly young men and boys from the slums hired for $5 to $10 a day — and send them into the street.

Grace Kalibo runs a small shop selling basic food goods in Kibera. She attended Sunday's massive peace rally where Odinga and Kenyatta shook hands and pledged peace. She believes Kenya will avoid the massive violence of five years ago. So does her neighbor, Lucas Awol, a 39-year-old bar owner where poor Kibera men gather on Sunday afternoons.

"This time they won't react at all. They are tired of war," said Awol. "This time it will be peaceful. People say so."

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Associated Press reporter Tom Odula contributed to this report

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