Canada's Liberals win Newfoundland seat in early test for Trudeau

By Randall Palmer

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's Liberals regained a seat in the House of Commons on Monday in a race viewed as an early test of the popularity of the party's new leader, Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau.

Liberal candidate Yvonne Jones had 50.8 percent of the vote and incumbent Conservative Peter Penashue only 29.1 percent, with 86 of the 91 polls reporting.

The third largest party in the House of Commons, the Liberals have vaulted to first place in national polls since Trudeau won the party's leadership a month ago. He campaigned hard to retake the seat in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, on Canada's Atlantic coast.

"Today we have demonstrated that the Liberal message of hope and hard work is resonating, and that Canadians are tired of the Conservatives' politics of cynicism, division and fear," Trudeau, 41, said in a statement, pledging that the victory in Newfoundland was only the beginning.

Penashue, who had served as intergovernmental affairs minister, resigned in March after it emerged that his campaign accepted illegal corporate donations in the 2011 general election. His campaign also spent more than the C$84,468 ($83,362) limit.

He blamed an inexperienced campaign official for the violations and said he knew nothing about the issues, but the scandal cost the Conservatives their only seat in the province. The Liberals have held it for 58 of the 64 years that Newfoundland and Labrador has been part of Canada.

The results marked the first time the Conservative Party failed to defend a seat between general elections since it was formed as a merger of two rival right-wing parties in 2003.

The Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, have been in power since 2006. The next federal election is due in October 2015.

Defense Minister Peter MacKay, campaigning on Penashue's behalf, had said that Penashue was guaranteed a seat in cabinet as the only member of Parliament from Newfoundland.

Trudeau, a former teacher, has been in Parliament for less than five years, and his leadership victory reflected both his family name and his personal magnetism. His father was prime minister for all but nine months from 1968-84.

Past efforts by Trudeau on behalf of other candidates before he became party leader had proved less successful, failing to produce Liberal seats in special elections last November or in a similar Toronto area election two years earlier.

Opinion polls for April, the month when Trudeau became party leader, put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives nationally for the first time since June 2009, with an average 33.4 percent support, compared to 30.2 percent for the Conservatives.

The poll average is compiled by the political blog www.threehundredeight.com.

($1=$1.01 Canadian)

(Reporting by Randall Palmer; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and Paul Simao)

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Canadian poll shows Trudeau Liberals far ahead

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's new Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau, would lead his party to a crushing election victory if a vote were held now, according to a poll released on Tuesday that put Liberal support substantially higher than other recent surveys have shown.

The Forum Research poll, the first conducted since the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau was elected party leader on Sunday, has the Liberals at 43 percent and the Conservatives at 30 percent. That amount of support would give the Liberals a solid majority government.

The Conservatives, in power since 2006 and plainly concerned about the 41-year-old Justin Trudeau's popularity, came out on Monday with attack ads questioning his judgment and experience.

The Forum numbers would have been enough for the Liberals to win 170 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, instead of the paltry 34 seats they won in the 2011 election. The next election is due in October 2015.

Other polls have been less rosy for the Liberals, although all show a strong improvement over their 2011 results. An Ekos poll released on Sunday had the Liberals at 29.1 percent support, compared with 28.8 percent for the Conservatives. But they lagged 25.7 percent to 33.8 percent if only likely voters were included.

A Nanos poll released on Friday gave the Liberals 35.4 percent support, compared with 31.3 percent for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives have lost some ground to the Liberals, but most of the new support has come at the expense of the left-leaning New Democratic Party, which won the second highest number of seats in the 2011 election with 30.6 percent of the vote. Forum has support for the NDP down to 19 percent now.

In the last election both the Liberals and the NDP campaigned on higher corporate taxes and on a cap-and-trade system to curb carbon emissions.

Forum's automated telephone poll of 1,764 people was taken on April 14. That sample size that should be accurate to within 2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

(Reporting by Randall Palmer; Editing by Janet Guttsman and Peter Galloway)

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Trudeau would win next Canadian election for Liberals, poll shows

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The Liberals would return to power in the next Canadian election if, as expected, they choose the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau to head the party, according to an opinion poll released on Friday.

The Forum Research poll showed the Liberals with Justin Trudeau as leader would be able to replace the Conservatives in power, albeit with a minority government, if an election were held today.

The center-left Liberals governed Canada for much of the 20th century, but fell to third place in the 2011 election. That left them behind the left-leaning New Democrats for the first time in history as the Conservatives turned their previous minority government into a majority one.

The Forum poll showed the Liberals under Trudeau would take 39 percent of the vote if an election were held now, compared with 32 percent for the Conservatives, and 20 percent for the New Democrats.

An election is not due until 2015, and the Conservatives have not yet ground Trudeau through their formidable advertising machine, making it impossible to predict if the poll figures will hold.

"Justin Trudeau continues to solidify his position at the top of the pops," the National Post newspaper, which ran the poll, quoted Forum President Lorne Bozinoff as saying.

Trudeau is a magnetic 41-year-old former teacher and ski instructor who has attracted 150,000 supporters to the Liberal Party during his leadership campaign, more than all the other leadership candidates combined. He heads into the April 14 convention as the heavy favorite.

His flamboyant father held power from 1968 to 1979 and again from 1980 to 1984. He died in 2000.

Justin Trudeau's popular support comes despite widespread doubts in Ottawa on whether he has the clout to become prime minister. He has given few specifics on how he would run Canada other than offering generic goals such as protecting and expanding the middle class.

The Conservatives will be sure to seize on some of his gaffes, such as saying he might consider joining Quebec separatists if Canada became too conservative.

'UNCRITICAL COVERAGE'

Conservative Party Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Trudeau had received "largely uncritical coverage" so far in the race, and that polls were irrelevant this far ahead of the election.

"Sooner or later if he becomes Liberal leader, he'll have to undergo a greater degree of public scrutiny, and that goes with the job," he told Reuters after a speech in Ottawa.

Forum said its latest poll numbers would give a Trudeau-led Liberal Party 149 seats in the House of Commons, compared with 115 for the Conservatives and 41 for the New Democrats.

A party needs 155 of the 308 seats in the House to get a majority that cannot be overturned by other parties, although the formula will change when more seats are added for the next election.

The poll showed support for the Liberals at 30 percent in response to questions that did not mention Trudeau, just behind the Conservatives at 31 percent, and ahead of the New Democrats at 27 percent.

A Nanos poll released on Thursday showed the Conservatives at 31.5 percent of committed voters, their lowest Nanos result since August 2009. Nanos has the Liberals at 29.1 percent and the New Democrats at 27.2 percent.

The automated Forum telephone poll surveyed 1,755 Canadians on Wednesday and Thursday. Forum says it has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Nanos surveyed 1,000 Canadians by phone February 19 to 24, including 717 committed voters. The error margin on committed voters is 3.8 percentage points.

(Reporting by Randall Palmer; Editing by Janet Guttsman,; Peter Galloway and Peter Cooney)

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